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| Credit Spread Changes within Switching Regimes by Olfa Maalaoui of HEC Montreal, February, 12, 2009 Abstract: Many empirical studies on credit spread determinants consider a single-regime model over the entire sample period and find limited explanatory power. We model the credit cycle independently from macroeconomic fundamentals using a Markov regime switching model. We show that accounting for endogenous credit cycles enhances the explanatory power of credit spread determinants. The single regime model cannot be improved when conditioning on the states of the NBER economic cycle. Furthermore, the regime-based model highlights a positive relation between credit spreads and the risk-free rate in the high regime. Inverted relations are also obtained for some other determinants. JEL Classification: C32, C52, C61, G12, G13. Keywords: Credit spread, switching regimes, market risk, liquidity risk, default risk. Books Referenced in this Paper: (what is this?)
Download paper (314K PDF) 52 pages Related reading: Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads
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