A Loss Default Simulation Model of the Federal Bank Deposit Insurance Funds

by Rosalind L. Bennett of the FDIC,
Daniel A. Nuxoll of the FDIC,
Robert A. Jarrow of Cornell University,
Michael C. Fu of the University of Maryland, and
Huiju Zhang of the University of Maryland

November 2005

Abstract: This paper discusses a simulation model that is used in a martingale valuation approach to measure and value the risk of the FDIC deposit insurance funds. The FDIC insurance funds capitalize a portfolio of insurance policies, each issued to depositors of an individual commercial bank. To evaluate this portfolio, our methodology evaluates the insurance policies for depositors at each individual bank and aggregates to obtain the risk of the entire portfolio. To adequately model the risks associated with credit, interest rate, deposit growth, and loss rate, a multi-dimensional system is formulated. The risk measurement and valuation results are based on Monte Carlo simulation of the system risks.

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