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| The Information Content of Option-Implied Volatility for Credit Default Swap Valuation by Charles Cao of Pennsylvania State University, March 15, 2007 Abstract: We explore the connection between the market for single-name credit default swaps (CDS) and the market for individual stock options. We find that the contemporaneous link between CDS spreads and option-implied volatilities is stronger among firms with lower credit ratings, higher CDS spread volatilities, and more actively traded options. Among such firms, the changes in both CDS spreads and implied volatilities forecast future stock returns. Although the changes in implied volatility consistently forecast future CDS spread changes, the reverse does not hold. We interpret these findings as broadly consistent with informed traders preferentially using the options market, and to some extent the CDS market, to exploit their information advantage. Although implied volatility dominates historical volatility in forecasting the future realized volatility on individual stocks, the volatility risk premium embedded in option prices also plays a crucial role in explaining CDS spreads. Our results are robust under a pricing analysis using a structural credit risk model. They are also unaffected by historical volatilities estimated at short or long horizons. Download paper (396K PDF) 42 pages
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